The Intelligence Process
Threats Facing the United States
The Intelligence Community at Work
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Delivering
the products to consumers who request them.
Some intelligence
information is sent directly to consumers, usually by electronic
means, because it is self-explanatory. More often, analysts check
information to see how it relates to other information they have
received. They evaluate the information and make comments. When
information has been reviewed and correlated with information available
from other sources, it is called finished intelligence.
Five
categories of finished intelligence are available to the consumer.
Current
intelligence addresses day-to-day events, seeking to apprise
consumers of new developments and related background, to assess
their significance, to warn of their near-term consequences, and
to signal potentially dangerous situations in the near future. Current
intelligence is presented in daily, weekly, and some monthly publications,
and frequently in ad hoc written memorandums and oral briefings
to senior officials.
Estimative
intelligence looks forward to assess potential developments
that could affect US national security. Like all kinds of intelligence,
estimative intelligence starts with the available facts, but then
explores the unknown, even the unknowable. Estimative intelligence
helps policymakers to think strategically about long-term threats
by discussing the implications of a range of possible outcomes and
alternative scenarios. National Intelligence Estimates, which are
estimative reports produced by the National Intelligence Council,
are the DCI's most authoritative written assessments of national
security issues.
Warning
intelligence sounds an alarm or gives notice to policymakers.
It connotes urgency and implies the potential need for policy action
in response. Warning includes identifying or forecasting events
that could cause the engagement of US military forces, or those
that would have a sudden and deleterious effect on US foreign policy
concerns (for example, coups, third-party wars, refugee situations).
Warning analysis involves exploring alternative futures and low
probability/high impact scenarios. The National Intelligence Officer
(NIO) for Warning serves as the DCI's and the IC's principal adviser
on warning. All agencies and intelligence staffs have designated
warning components, and some have specific warning responsibilities:
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NSA maintains
the worldwide CRITIC system for the simultaneous alerting of
US officials within minutes of situations that may affect US
security.
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DIA manages
the Defense Indications and Warning System (DIWS) to provide
accurate and timely warning of developing threats to US and
Allied military interests. Other members include the Combatant
Commands, the military services, NSA, State Department/INR,
the NIO for Warning, and a growing number of US Allies. DIWS
disseminates warning information from DIA and other system members
via briefings, weekly and quarterly warning products, and, on
a priority basis, ad hoc bulletins.
Research
intelligence is presented in monographs and in-depth studies
by virtually all agencies. Research underpins both current and estimative
intelligence; there are also two specialized subcategories of research
intelligence:
- Basic
intelligence consists primarily of the structured compilation
of geographic, demographic, social, military, and political data
on foreign countries. This material is presented in the form of
maps, atlases, force summaries, handbooks, and, on occasion, sand
table models of terrain. The Directorate of Intelligence in CIA,
NGA, and the Directorate for Analysis in DIA are major producers
of this material.
- Intelligence
for operational support
incorporates all types of intelligence production-current, estimative,
warning, research, scientific and technical; it is tailored, focused,
and rapidly produced for planners and operators. A top priority
of DIA is to satisfy the intelligence needs of operational forces
and their commanders. DIA also provides near-real-time intelligence
to military forces in peacetime, crisis, contingency, and combat
operations. To accomplish this, it operates the Joint Worldwide
Intelligence Communications System (JWICS) and deploys National
Intelligence Support Teams (NISTs) as needed, worldwide. The Associate
Director of Central Intelligence for Military Support, via CIA's
Office of Military Affairs, oversees deployment of CIA components
of NISTs.
Scientific
and technical intelligence includes information on technical
developments and characteristics, performance, and capabilities
of foreign technologies including weapon systems or subsystems.
This information is derived from analysis of all-source data, including
technical measurements. Generally, such technical analysis and reporting
responds to specific national requirements derived from the weapons
acquisition process, arms control negotiations, or military operations.
It covers the entire spectrum of sciences, technologies, weapon
systems, and integrated operations. This type of intelligence is
provided to consumers via in-depth studies, detailed system handbooks,
executive summaries, focused assessments and briefs, and automated
databases.
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